connecteddale

How to Use

1. Define the focal question: what is the key decision or uncertainty you are planning around (5-15 year horizon)? 2. Identify the key driving forces (political, economic, social, technological, environmental, legal). 3. Rank forces by importance and uncertainty. 4. Select the two most uncertain and most important forces -- these become the axes of a 2x2 matrix. 5. Name and develop four plausible scenarios in the quadrants. 6. Test your current strategy against each scenario: where is it robust? Where does it break down? 7. Identify early warning indicators for each scenario.